Fears gridlock may spark violence Lebanon’s presidential saga…Failure not an option DUBAI (AlArabiya.net) Since the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in February 2005, the whole political system in Lebanon has almost come to a standstill. To add salt to injury, regional and international affiliations resulted in a dangerous process of polarization on the local politics. The country was split down sectarian lines in a way that risks uncontrollable violence. The war Israel launched on Lebanon, in retaliation for an operation by Hezbollah fighters that resulted in killing and wounding several soldiers and capturing two more, also had its own repercussions politically. Despite the apparent unity during the 33-day long war, differences among the two major blocks in Lebanon went out of hand following the end of that war in August 2006. The country has, since then, been divided into two rival camps. The ruling majority – in terms of parliamentary seat – is called the March 14 camp. That camp includes the parliamentary majority, led by Hariris son Saad and Sunni Muslim Prime Minster Fouad Siniora. It is called the anti-Syria and/or pro-western camp. The other camp is called March 8 and it includes the Hezbollah-led opposition forces. That camp comprises two main posts; current president Emil Lahoud and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. According to Lebanon’s constitution, parliament elects the president, who must be a Christian Maronite, in line with Al-Taif Agreement that put an end to the country’s destructive civil war (1975-1989). In the first reading in parliament, at least a two-third majority is a must to elect a president. The second reading requires a simple majority. Why is this presidential vote different then? The ruling majority insists they have constitutional rights to elect a president with a simple majority in the second reading even if a consensus president proposal fails. The opposition, on the other hand, argues the current Siniora government is unconstitutional after the six Shiite ministers pulled out of it. The opposition is supported by the current pro- Syria president. The reasons for the current standoff are simple. Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian parties do not want a president who will favor the West and facilitate a U.N. investigation into the murder of Hariri and other anti-Syrian politicians. They also argue the Taif Agreement recognized the role of Syria whose decisive intervention did bring an end to the civil war, even though Damascus itself had been one of the behind-the-scenes players in that awful bloodletting. The so-called pro-Washington parties believe that only by working closely with the West will Lebanon restore its former pivotal place in Arab affairs, not least as a financial and commercial center. At first sight there would seem to be no common ground. The Lebanese president, who is elected for six years, is more than a constitutional figurehead; in fact, he has substantial powers. Though the role is by agreement always held by a Maronite Christian while the premier is a Muslim, the presidential contest is between the pro-Syrian Michel Aoun (once no friend of Damascus) and three anti-Syrian candidates who have all been variously characterized as pro-Washington. Worst-case scenario Worst-case scenario if the parliament fails to agree on a president until Lahoud’s term expires in November may be that Lahoud goes ahead with his threat and appoint a new government. This means Lebanon may have two rival governments. This would be a grim reminder of violence simply because a similar situation ignited the civil war. Compiled by Khaled Mamdouh Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film UN names George Clooney "messenger of peace" Comments 1 - Let Shawki Abu Ayash [ Saturday, October 20, 2007 ] Since Lahoud came to power, there was two scenario: Either he will be the saviour of an independent souvereign state, or he will be the last president who demolish the state of Lebanon . Let's wait and see how he will end up his era!!! 2 - Funny Khaled alshoubassy [ Monday, October 22, 2007 ] Lebanon is very funny :) 3 - dont know ? [ Saturday, October 27, 2007 ] as long as the president is a maronite i think everyone will be happy :) 4 - Not Funny Jamal [ Tuesday, November 06, 2007 ] I don't understand what Khaled thinks is funny. Having 6 members of parliament assassinated in the span of two years is not funny. The country is under attack from outside forces that refuse to let it live and be the modern democratic nation that it yearns to be after roughly 30 years of occupation by its "lovely" neighbors. 5 - lebnan moharer al ahruf [ Tuesday, November 13, 2007 ] you every body knows that lebanon is the greatest country in the world sooooo be broud all the lebanes are great toogood bye 6 - Lebanon JoeSchmoe [ Friday, November 23, 2007 ] Since when an election is superseded by a consensus? There is a difference between electing a president and appointing one. Iran and Syria, in their continuation of using Lebanon and the Lebanese people as proxies in their ultimate and selfish motives (Iran: If the west attacks its nuclear projects, it will use Hezbollah (Their agents) to attack Israel. Syria: Is willing to fight till the last Lebanese in its quest to trade Lebanon for the Golan). So Lebanon ends up as deck of cards in the hands of the Arabs (BROTHERS) and the Persians in their selfish aspirations. Unfortunately and despite all the pride and narcissism that the Lebanese people show, they are proving to the world that they are not the smartest as they claim, but the biggest idiots, allowing themselves to become traitors and agents to foreign dictatorships at the expense of their own country. 7 - All sides have legitimate arguments, all sides have flaws. Tamir [ Wednesday, December 05, 2007 ] The political problems that reside in Lebanon will not end until this ridiculous confessional system of governance is ended. The Lebanese need to abolish the confessional system and have a true democracy where leaders are elected by MERIT and not by the religious sect that they come from. Lebanon will continue to have a weak and divided state unless they abolish this system. Also, it is important to note that Hezbollah, whether one agrees or disagrees with their ideology is the representative of the Shi'a people in Lebanon. One can not dismiss them as an Iranian proxy. The Shi'a are now the largest minority in Lebanon, and Hezbollah is their main representative, to marginalize Hezbollah is to marginalize an entire people. There needs to be an understanding, although Syria was involved in the vast corruption of the economy in Lebanon, one must give Syria credit for supporting Selim al-Hoss, and reconstructing the Lebanese army. We need to stop looking at things as BLACK and WHITE or GOOD or EVIL, there are so many shades of gray. Syria is not EVIL, and neither are the members of Sanyoura's government. All sides have faults and flaws, and ALL sides have legitimate arguments. 8 - The Futere President Of Lebanon ????????? Dr Riad Awwad [ Friday, December 07, 2007 ] THE FUTURE PRESIDENT OF LEBANON BETWEEN THE SIRIAN HAMMER AND THE INTERNATIONAL ANVIL By Riad Awwad "Lebanon of democracy" and "Switzerland of the Middle East", like it is being called, has become a country in witch anarchy and destruction have settled, especially after the assassination of former prime-minister Rafik Al-Hariri and after a series of other political assassinations to witch personalities of a certain political color, different from the one of the foreign presence, have fallen victims. Once the Syrian army retreated from Lebanon, in 2005, after a 30 year presence in this country, Lebanon found itself before the imperative to eradicate the chaos created by international interferences (Syria, Iran, Israel) and the one of the great powers (USA, France). The acting president, Emile Lahoud, ends his mandate on the 23rd of November 2007, so Damascus will lose a chief of state Lebanese by identity and Syrian by mentality and feeling. Syria cramps to the Lebanese trump according to the "to be or not to be" law, and the president of the parliament in Beirut, Nabib Berri is also a soldier faithful to Syria, just like the Hezbollah movement, considered to be an active battalion of Damascus in Lebanon, together with other currents and personalities in this country - The Baas party, Syrian Social National Party, or a series of Palestinian factions like "The Peoples Front- General Command, Fattah AL-Islam and so on witch, all, constitute fuel for the Syrian presence on Lebanese territory. The presidential elections have been postponed three times, and seems will be postponed even further, because the parliamentary majority lead by member of the parliament Saad Hariri together with Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, wish the future chief of state to be of Lebanese extraction and orientation exclusively, a president dedicated to the Lebanese dignity and free of any exterior dependence, while the opposing forces wish the future president to be a simple soldier devoted to Syria, fact witch makes their choice orientated to the superannuated figure of general Michel Aoun, one willing to reach the high position in the state even by stepping over the bodies of the Christian community. Like Nero, he is only interested in power, after he followed Amin Gemayel as president, in 1995, and ruined the country, being then constrained by the Syrians themselves to choose the way of exile in France until the year 2005. Not even the Maronite patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir managed to play more active of a role, fearing for the unity of the Lebanese Christians, in this country fallen victim to the ambitions of local and external forces. Iran wishes for a Lebanon that can serve as a combat front with the US and Israel; Syria looks to foreclose the application of the decisions to be made by the international court which investigates the death of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, eventually by repeating the civil war and by enlarging the gap which separates the legitimate government from the pro Syrian-Iranian opposition. The crisis could not be solved, even after the mediation demarches made by The Arab League, France or US. The powerful political cleavage on internal matters, and the external encroachment had both a strong contribution also on this situation. According to the Constitution, the president of Lebanon is elected with a majority of two thirds, and if none of the candidates reaches this level then he will be elected with a simple majority of votes in the first poll, which, until now, the opposition has boycotted, in the hope that they could superimpose General Michel Aoun, in the conditions of boycotting the efforts for obtaining the majority of two thirds, which means that the perspective of electing a new president remains, at the time, a long way to go. But in Annapolis , we suppose that a Syrian - American agreement took place, and the name of the general in army Michel Suleiman could suddenly appear in the picture, no one knows for sure. A president exclusively Lebanese: no one has managed, this far along the way, to truly define the meaning of this dream, and Lebanon - the country of cedars and peace, remains a country resembling a fragile leaf in the winds of a storm, caught between the Syrian hammer and the international anvil, making the Lebanese citizen - be him Christian or Muslim, the only victim. Leave a Comment (Analysis) Lebanon's next options are mostly bad Sarkis Naoum The Lebanese Parliament is due to elect a new president for a six-year term during the 60-day period beginning September 25. As is often the case with Lebanon, numerous domestic and foreign factors complicate what should be a straightforward political process. First of all there is a legal-constitutional dispute between the two major blocs, the Sunni-Druze-Christian alliance of the March 14 coalition, which has named as Prime Minister Fouad Siniora; and the Shiite-Christian bloc led by Hizbullah. The March 14 bloc, currently holding a parliamentary majority, insists on continuing to govern despite the resignation of Shiite ministers in November 2006. Hizbullah and its allies claim that this violates the unwritten 1943 National Pact regulating relations among confessional groups, as well as the Constitution. They insist on a consensus democracy in which all sects are represented in the Parliament and the Cabinet, regardless of the outcome of parliamentary elections. The second domestic dispute is over the insistence of Hizbullah, validated by its struggle against Israel, to maintain its state within the Lebanese state - and to try to take control of the Lebanese nation while pretending to preserve the roles of the other sects. To accomplish this, Hizbullah relies on the Shiite community (the most populous in Lebanon), its military strength, and its foreign relations, assets which the other sects cannot match. The March 14 bloc rejects Hizbullah domination and is attempting to prevent it by - like Hizbullah - relying on foreign support, and also by trying to convince Hizbullah that it will succeed only in destroying Lebanon. The major foreign factor is the sharp confrontation between Iran and Syria on the one side, and the United States and most of the Arab and international community on the other. This confrontation has found ideal ground in Lebanon due to the presence of a Hizbullah army representing the military, political, security, and sectarian interests of Iran; the presence of Syrian allies who will have no political future if Lebanon gains true independence; the existence of no less important factions that refuse to allow Lebanon to be dominated by Syria and Iran; and the determination of the US and the international community to prevent such domination, even if they cannot gain victory for their own Lebanese allies. None of these disputes will be resolved in the short time before the presidential election. Similar to what happened during the Civil War that began in 1975, the Lebanese factions have lost their independence and have become incapable of solving their own problems. At the moment each group is pleased with its foreign allies, but a time will come when they will recognize their incapacity and that their allies are taking advantage of them. Even then they will not be able to do anything, perhaps because by then Lebanon will have lost its justification for existence or the entire region will have begun to fragment. In the current predicament, the Lebanese have five options. The first is for all parties to agree to a truce, rather than a solution, and then elect a president who will oversee this truce. His job would be to maintain the present situation with some improvements in living conditions, and perhaps to ward off the specter of greater strife. The second option is to form a government of national unity, in which Hizbullah and the opposition become an empowered minority, which would rule the nation temporarily if a compromise president cannot be agreed upon. The third would be to form a provisional government, perhaps headed by the military, to maintain security and prepare for the election of a new president. The fourth option is to elect for a two-year term a president who is acceptable to all parties (perhaps because he will be relatively weak and unable to rule) while waiting for an end to the confrontation to determine in what direction Lebanon is headed. The fifth possibility is to delay the presidential election with the agreement of all parties. The parliamentary majority could elect the president from within (although this is contrary to the Constitution), or the current government could be allowed to exercise the powers of the president for a time. This would compel the Iranian- and Syrian-supported opposition - particularly President Emile Lahoud - to form a new government, and perhaps to elect a new president. But it would also be a step on the path to partition, and could open the door to further conflict and perhaps civil war. Which of these scenarios is likely? Unfortunately, the fourth and fifth scenarios are the most probable, although there is some hope for the third. However, we must not resign ourselves to this fate as there are more than two months before Lahoud's term ends, during which time anything could happen. * Pulished in Lebanon’s THE DAILY STAR on September 19, 2007. Sarkis Naoum is a commentator for the Lebanese daily An-Nahar. This commentary, translated from Arabic by Kevin Burnham, is reprinted with permission from the Arab Reform Bulletin, Vol. 5, issue 7 (September 2007) www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ArabReform (c) 2007, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Doomsday cult and security clash in Iraq, 70 dead Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film Comments 1 - political crisis in Lebanon daya [ Thursday, November 22, 2007 ] I agree with the analysis of Mr . Naoum . He descrbed the complex and itreguing political situation in Lebanon succinctly . However , I would like to draw attention to the linkage between the worsening political crisis in Lebanon and Iran's demand to be recognised by the U.S. as a world power, and a major player in Iraq and the the region . The Iranian president Ahmadi Nijad maintained , during a visit by the Syrian Foreign minister Walid Mo'alle toTehran recently ,that an "alliance" between Iran , Syria and , Lebanon is "the only road to achieve victory in the region".(an-Nahar,Nov.,21,2007). A fourth round of talks between Iran and The U.S. over the issue of "security" in Iraq at the instigation of the latter is underway . Iranian strategy seems to be working. 2 - Why not settle for Edde? Jester [ Friday, November 23, 2007 ] Not electing a president today is unlawful, unjust and unfair. Lebanese have been dragged and exhausted. Kalam el Nas’ insightful and amusing political show last night as discussion kept on brewing, leaked two names, out of the Original 7 down to 5, down to 2 by removing each camps candidate, Michel Aoun from the opposition (in a courageous and courteous move) and the march 14 to remove their preferred candidates Nassib Lahoud and Boutros Harb, which both are highly respectable. Down to two names to be announced before the deadline set by Aoun, 2 hours before Lahoud steps out of office. The two names are down to: Michel Edde and Robert Ghanem. The first, an intellectual character with long experience on record to Ghanem’s younger outlook but calmer tone. I find, any decision from any MP not to go to Parliament today to elect our right-given representation, would be unconstitutional and unlawful by their part. n.b. In the wake of a president not being elected by midnight tonight, the republic government goes to the hands of the Prime Minister. Lahoud, may hand over that privilege to M. Sleiman. Leave a Comment (Facts) Timeline of Lebanon's history Independence Civil war Taif Era Turn of the century 1920: France divides Lebanon and Syria into separate colonial enclaves and forms the State of Greater Lebanon as one of several ethnic enclaves within Syria. 1926: France declares the Lebanese Republic. The Republic becomes a separate entity from Syria but still is administered under the French Mandate for Syria. 1940: Lebanon comes under Vichy French government control, General Henri Dentz, the Vichy High Commissioner for Syria and Lebanon, plays a major role in the future independence of the nation. 1941: Turmoil in Europe sparks fears Germany will gain control of Syria and Lebanon, leading French and British troops to occupy Lebanon. After 20 years of French mandate, Lebanon's independence is declared in November, however full independence comes in stages. Independence 1943: -An unwritten National agreement is established laying the foundations of the state. The agreement confirms Lebanon as an independent Arab country with ties to the West. -The National Assembly is established, Bechara El Khoury is named president, the arrangement works for about 20 years. 1957-1958: -Lebanon plunges into political crisis caused by political and religious tensions in the country. -Muslim factions rise in revolt against Maronite Christian President Kamil Chamoun, Lebanon's first civil war breaks out. -Chamoun calls on U.S. President Eisenhower to send U.S. troops to reestablish the government's authority, "Operation Blue Bat" is launched on July 15. 1967-1968: -The Six-day Arab Israeli War breaks out between Israel and Arab nations Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Lebanon has no active role in the war but is affected as Palestinian factions use Lebanon as a base for retaliation strikes against Israel. -Israel raids Beirut airport in retaliation to a Palestinian strike. 1973: Israel performs another raid on Beirut and kills three prominent Palestinian leaders associated with PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. The Lebanese government resigns the next day. Civil war 1975: Clashes between Christian and Palestinian Militia breaks out, widely considered the start of a lengthy civil war that devastated Lebanon. 1976: -Fighting between Lebanese factions during March 1975 and November 1976 kills 40,000 Lebanese. -Lebanon asks Syria to intervene to restore peace and curb the Palestinians, Syrian troops enter Lebanon. -The Arab Summit hold meetings and arrange a ceasefire forming the Syrian Arab Deterrent Force (ADF) to maintain peace. 1978: -Israel invades Lebanon and occupies land reaching as far north as the Litani River. -The United Nations Security Council calls on Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory and creates a 6,000-man peacekeeping force called UNIFIL to ensure it happens. -Israel hands over their strongholds to Christian Lebanese militia instead of UNIFIL. 1982: -A Palestinian assassination attempt on Israel's ambassador in London sparks Israel's second invasion and "Operation Peace for Galilee" is launched targeting the PLO based in Lebanon. -Approximately 7,000 Palestinians flee Lebanon to other Arab nations -President-elect Bashir Gemayel is assassinated at the headquarters of his Christian Phalangist Party. -Christian militia massacre about 1,000 Palestinians in the Israeli-controlled area of Sabra and Shatlia refugee camps, prompting the return of a multi-national U.S., French and Italian peace keeping force. -Amin Gemayel, Bashir's brother, is elected president. -Lebanese factions struggle for power, plunging Lebanon into further chaos and instability -Hezbollah (Party of God) is established mid- 1980's 1983: -A buffer zone is set up in south Lebanon; Israel and Lebanon sign an agreement on Israeli withdrawal. -Suicide bombings kill 241 U.S. marines and 56 French soldiers; spring 1984 multinational troops withdraw. 1985: -Majority of Israeli troops withdraw but some remain along the south of the border and engage in clashes with Palestinian groups. -Israel supports the Christian South Lebanon Army financed and trained by Israel and led by Major General Antoine Lahd. 1986: -Syria monitors a peacekeeping agreement in Beirut -Clashes between Shiite and Druze militia in West Beirut breaks the agreement, Syrian troops mobilize to suppress militia resistance. 1989: -The Taif Accord is signed in Saudi Arabia, establishing a more equitable political system, giving Muslims a greater voice in the political process and institutionalizing sectarian divisions in the government. Taif Era 1991: -Syria and Lebanon sign a treaty of Friendship, effectively giving Syria control over Lebanon's foreign relations. -The Lebanese government, backed by Syria, regains control of the south and disbands various militia groups, ending the 16-year civil war which destroyed most of Lebanon's infrastructure. 1992: -Hezbollah leader, Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi is killed by an Israeli attack on his motorcade. -Secretary General of the Shiite Amal organization, Nabih Berri, becomes speaker of the National Assembly. -A rich business man with Saudi Arabian citizenship, Rafiq Hariri, becomes prime minister, heading a cabinet of technocrats. 1993-1996: -Israel launches "Operation Accountability" on Hezbollah, its deadliest attack on Lebanon since 1982. -Israel launches "Operation Grapes of Wrath" bombing Hezbollah bases in south Lebanon. -Israel attacks a U.N. base, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 Lebanese refugees. -The United States negotiates a truce between Hezbollah and Israel under which Hezbollah agrees not to attack civilians in north Israel and Israel accepts Hezbollah's right to resist Israeli occupation in the south. Lebanon and Syria refuse to sign the agreement. 1999: Israel bombs south Lebanon the deadliest attack since 1996. Turn of the century 2000: Israeli cabinet votes to withdraw Israeli troops from south Lebanon after 18 consecutive years of occupation. 2001-2002 -Syria withdraws nearly all of its 25,000 troops from Lebanon, 14,000 troops remain. -Continued Israeli-Palestinian clashes, prompt Hezbollah to build up forces along the Lebanese- Israeli border. -A key figure in the 1982 Palestinian massacres is murdered after releasing information about videotapes and documents that challenged Israel's account of the events. 2004: -Syria insists pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud is permitted to serve three more years, beyond the constitutional six-year limit, despite outrage the Lebanese parliament vote. -U.N. Security council demands Syria remove its troops stationed in Lebanon for the past 28 years. -Syria removes about 3,000 out of 14,000 troops as a result Rafiq Hariri resigns. 2005: -Rafiq Hariri is assassinated and Syria is accused of involvement, sparking anti-Syria riots in Beirut calling for a full withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon. -Anti-Syrian alliance wins control of parliament, led by Saad Hariri (Rafiq's son), Fouad Siniora is chosen as prime minister. -Syria withdraws all of its troops ending its 29 year stance. 2006: -Hezbollah fighters capture two Israeli soldiers -Israel launches a deadly 33-day military attack on Lebanon on July 12 crippling major infrastructures; 1,200 Lebanese civilians and 160 Israeli soldiers are killed -Israel's attack deeply divides the Lebanese government; Six ministers (Five Shiite and 1 Christian Orthodox) withdraw from the government, deeming it unconstitutional -A Hezbollah-led opposition camp demands the government resigns calling for new general elections not based on the Taif agreement. - The situation leads to a political stalemate, resulting in the current impasse over electing a president. Doomsday cult and security clash in Iraq, 70 dead Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film Comments Leave a Comment (Facts) Lebanon outline Political system Official name: The Lebanese Republic Capital: Beirut Languages: Arabic (official), French, English Major religions: Christianity, Islam Population: 3.9 million Currency: Lebanese Lira Government: Republic, based on "confessionalism". Lebanon is a small Middle Eastern country located at the eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea. It is a largely mountainous area and is bordered by Syria to the north and east, and Israel to the south. Lebanon is one of the most complex and deeply divided countries in the region as government structures are divided between various groups. Lebanon was part of the Ottoman Empire for over 400 years, in a region known as Greater Syria. After World War I in 1916, the League of Nations granted France mandate over Lebanon and neighboring Syria. Political system Lebanon is a democratic republic which follows a special political system due to its sectarian diversity. The system is known as confessionalism and is meant to distribute an even amount of power among the various sects ensuring each sect is fairly represented in the governing body. The Lebanese parliament has 128 parliamentary seats, which are divided proportionally between Muslims and Christians. The confessionalism system holds that the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, the parliament speaker a Shiite Muslim and the deputy prime minister an Orthodox Christian. Before 1990 the Christians dominated with a ratio of 6:5, then the 1989 Taif Agreement adjusted the ratio to grant equal representation. The Lebanese constitution dictates that direct elections are held every four years, where parliament elects the president for a non-renewable six-year term. However, in Lebanon's shady history this rule has been bypassed with two ad hoc amendments by Syria. The first was during Elias Hrawi’s term which was extended for another three years after it was due to end in 1995. The second was in 2004 when the procedure was repeated to allow Émile Lahoud to remain in office until 2007. The system is run on a series of appointments where the President appoints a Prime Minister based on the nomination of the parliament. The prime minister then consults with the parliament and president and forms the cabinet, which is also based on equal sectarian distribution set out by confessionalism. Doomsday cult and security clash in Iraq, 70 dead Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film Comments 1 - Student Abdirahman [ Monday, December 10, 2007 ] This kind of set up is bound to collapse anytime and lead to disasterous consequences. The choice should be by the people. Leave a Comment (Analysis) Who will be Lebanon's next president? Sami Moubayed It seems like the big players have placed their bet in Lebanon. The Saudis "prefer" Nassib Lahhoud of the March 14 Coalition, a respected statesman from the Maronite community. The Americans, who "insist" that nobody should interfere in the elections, "prefer" Boutros Harb, another Maronite candidate from March 14. The Syrians want Michel Aoun, the Christian heavyweight who is allied to Hezbollah. French are undecided, with an official line saying that they would support whomever is chosen by the people of Lebanon. Some press reports, however, say that they were in favor of bringing Army Commander Michel Suleiman to Ba'abda Palace, for an interim period of two years, to avoid a constitutional vacuum. That proposal, apparently, was vetoed by the Americans and Saudis because of Suleiman's friendship with both the Syrians and Hezbollah. Suleiman, however, still stands as a possible president-in-waiting, depending on the outcome of events in the upcoming week. All of these "bets" are preliminary. Anything can change between now and September 25. According to the Lebanese weekly Al Kifah Al Arabi, if the Americans back out on Lahhoud, their second bet would be Riad Salameh, the compromise candidate who currently serves as Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon. Salameh, who is currently not officially standing for the presidential elections, is seen as an independent technocrat with an exceptionally unblemished record, who is acceptable by all parties in the Lebanese conflict. If the Hezbollah-led opposition vetoes all of March 14's candidates, then Salameh would stand a higher chance at becoming president. His candidacy, however, like that of Michel Suleiman, requires a constitutional amendment. Article 49 of the Constitution says that a candidate running for office must not be employed by the government. A period of no less than two years in retirement is needed before a civil servant can run for office - something that applies neither to Salameh nor Suleiman. Legal experts, however, are saying that although this clearly applies to Suleiman, it does not apply to Salameh, who is "contracted" for the post and not actually employed by the Lebanese government. Several politicians in Lebanon, including March 14 heavyweights such as Samir Gagegea and Walid Junblatt, argue that no constitutional amendments can be made after the constitutional deadline of September 25. They want to minimise the chances of bringing any figure who is not a member of March 14 to the Ba'abda Palace. After this given date, they argue, parliament loses its legislative powers and becomes strictly, a voting body. It can no longer amend the constitution. This means if Salameh or Suleiman stand any chance at running for office, this would have to be within the next week. The Syrians are worried about US plans for Lebanon, especially after US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman said that Lebanon is a strategic partner for the US in the Middle East. They repeatedly claim that they will not tolerate an anti-Syrian president in Lebanon, who allows Lebanon to be used by the US for anti-Syrian activity. They fear that a president from March 14 would further the anti-Syrian campaign, and work for the disarming of Hezbollah, Syria's main ally in Lebanon. Likewise, a president from March 14, who rules with Fouad Siniora means that all of Syria's allies in Lebanon will be completely marginalised and kept out of government jobs. The fact that the US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffery Feltman has prolonged his stay in Lebanon until after the elections, and that his successor Michele Sison has not arrived is worrying for Damascus. This means that the Americans are planning to manipulate the presidential elections through Feltman, an outright supporter of March 14. On the other hand, the Saudis "prefer" Lahhoud. They do not want to force their candidate on Lebanon, however, fearing that the opposition would refuse to vote or obey him, and resort to creating a parallel government, headed by a pro- Syrian president. That is why the Saudis supported the Berri Initiative, hoping to win support from Hezbollah for Lahhoud, or any candidate from March 14. Strong ally The other March 14 candidate is Boutros Harb. A lawyer by profession, he worked with Nassib Lahhoud in the Qornet Shehwan Gathering, but had previously been a strong ally of the Syrians, who made him Minister of Education in the early 1990s. One of the two Maronite candidates from March 14 has to step out of the presidential race, so that only one Christian runs in the race, supported by the Hariri bloc. This would take place after all Christian forces within March 14, which include the Lebanese Phalange and the Lebanese Forces, decide on one candidate. Sources in Lebanon still do not rule out the candidacy of former President Ameen Gemayel, whose record was seriously affected, however, after losing the Metn parliamentary elections earlier this summer, against a political nobody from the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun. Respectable candidates, however, whether it is Lahhoud or Harb, will refuse coming to power with a purely Christian mandate. They will even refuse being voted into office under nothing more than US support and an umbrella from March 14. They want history to remember them as spokesmen for all of Lebanon. They also don't want Christian history to remember them as having come to power under Sunni patronage, thanks to Sa'ad Al Hariri and the Saudis, or US support. This is a long- standing norm in Lebanon. During the last proper elections that took place in 1975, between Suleiman Franjiyyieh and Elias Sarkis, each had an impressive mixture of Christians and Muslims among their parliamentary supports. Franjiyyieh, who won with a one vote difference over Sarkis, had Christian leaders behind him such as Pierre Gemayel and Raymond Edde, as well as Muslim heavyweights like Kamel Al Asaad and Saeb Salam. Sarkis's team had Christians such as Rene Mouawwad, and Muslim "giants" such as Rashid Karameh. Will history - or can history - repeat itself, given so much polarisation in Lebanese politics, and so many different "preferences" from Washington, Riyad, Paris, and Damascus? * Published in UAE's GULF NEWS on September 18, 2007. Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst. Doomsday cult and security clash in Iraq, 70 dead Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film Comments 1 - Mr Nadim Aramouni [ Wednesday, November 07, 2007 ] I would like to see Mr Dimyanos Kattar as our next president ! we need someone who undestands the problem, does have a solution, and also have an action plan. General Aoun would have been perfect, but many people are afraid of him and this will hinder any future economical process for te country !!! And even better and better ,,,we need a civilized coutry to rule us for 25 yrs, in order for a whole new generation to become more respectful of the law, of others, and act with responsibility. 2 - President Of Lebanon Dr. Ziad [ Thursday, November 08, 2007 ] I like Mr. Aramouni's comments. adding to it my choise of president will be Mr. Butros Harb, would be a pefect candidate. He is moderate pro Lebanese, very independent in his thinking yet considetrate. He is Lebanese first and last, open minded and will be a president for all Lebanese. He can lead Lebanon to a properus future, with the help of his supporters in parliment I think he can make Lebanon paradise of the middle east. Leave a Comment Avoiding the emergence of two Lebanons Hady Amr As a Middle East policy analyst who also has family ties to Lebanon, I visit quite often. I rolled out of bed one day and tried jogging along Beirut's famed middle-class seaside walkway called the "Corniche" recently, only to discover that the simple concrete and metal rails overlooking the glittering Mediterranean were being pulled up to make way for gorgeous tiles and shiny aluminum. The prospect of these misplaced public works not only upset me but it disrupted my jog. However, it did get me thinking. Generic urban renewal is of course a good thing. But Lebanon is a country with the absolute highest per capita debt-to-GDP ratio in the Arab world. A year ago in Lebanon and Israel, Hizbullah and Israel pounded each other so hard that 30 percent of the Lebanese population became internal refugees. Swathes of South Lebanon were flattened to dust. Ask yourself: If you were running Lebanon, would you be spending the people's money renovating perfectly good waterfront in an area hardly affected by war, while a third of the country was devastated by war? The Lebanese government should have other priorities like catering to the civilian victims of the war, or unifying the electorate. The Corniche renewal, albeit small financially, is a highly visible and largely unnecessary renovation. Pair this with vociferous complaints of large areas of the country receiving more than their fair share of electricity blackouts. Lebanon's current ruling coalition, which is at odds with Hizbullah, must also do more to revitalize hard- hit South Lebanon, and other disadvantaged parts of the country. Imagine the public outcry that would occur in the United States if after Hurricane Katrina, George W. Bush undertook highly visible development projects in Republican strongholds that were left untouched by Katrina - that's how the situation looks to Lebanon's large Shiite community, the key source of support for Hizbullah. Perhaps a short-sighted policy, but why should this matter to Americans? Because over the past two decades, countries that have fallen apart have done so painfully and amid chaos. Yugoslavia divided into a half-dozen states, and Bosnia later broke apart into two further entities - one Serbian Greek Orthodox and one combined Croatian Catholic and Bosnian Muslim. Serbia and Montenegro broke apart. Kosovo may soon separate. The West Bank and Gaza are now ruled by two governments - Hamas in Gaza and Yasser Arafat's Fatah in the West Bank, and analysts are talking about partitioning Iraq into Arab Sunni, Arab Shiite, and Kurdish areas. Could Lebanon be heading in the same direction? Are we about to see the emergence of two Lebanons - North Lebanon and South Lebanon, one governed by Hizbullah in the South while the rest of the country is run by the Sunnis and the various Christian sects? This scenario is highly unlikely, largely because neither Hizbullah nor the Lebanese government want this. But with the Lebanese presidential elections due soon, we face the high likelihood that the two sides in Parliament might not agree on a president. If this happens, there is a chance that Lebanon could end having parallel state institutions, each claiming legitimacy. Where would that leave Lebanon, America and the rest of the international community? Lebanon's decade-and-a-half long Civil War has taught the Lebanese that violence does not solve problems. We must take steps to keep Lebanon's seams intact. What Lebanon needs is for each side to have the strength to stop relying on its international supporters to promote their interests. Instead, the international community should encourage the various factions within Lebanon to work together to ensure that the outcome of the upcoming presidential selection process does not lead to a divided Lebanon. What the region needs are more partners who are willing to sit around the table to solve problems. What the world needs is a Lebanese government that is building a positive future for all its citizens - and the support of the global community for a country in which government spending, electoral systems and the Constitution are not based on religious difference but on the common humanity of all Lebanese. Why wait for Lebanon to fall apart? Wouldn't it be better to talk now and build a common future, before it ends up like Bosnia, or perhaps soon Iraq? * Hady Amr is a foreign policy fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and Director of the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. Published in THE DAILY STAR on September 10, 2007 in collaboration with the Common Ground News Service. Doomsday cult and security clash in Iraq, 70 dead Nasrallah in public for first time since Israel war Yemen tracks killers of Belgian tourists Israel continues Gaza blitz despite UN concern Dutch govt ready for anger over anti-Islam film Comments